Macro Trends

BTC and ETH continue to trade in a weak, choppy structure, with prices trending lower and rebounds lacking strength. Volatility has spiked multiple times, reflecting fragile sentiment. On the derivatives side, leverage has not returned after a major deleveraging event, with open interest remaining at low levels. The concentrated long liquidations in early November further indicate declining confidence, suggesting that short-term downside risks remain. From a quantitative strategy perspective, the moving-average trend-breakout model has delivered strong performance in assets such as XRP, DOGE, and ADA, though it may still face signal delays and stop-loss whipsaws during strong one-sided trends. In contrast, the Gate Quant Fund employs a market-neutral arbitrage and hedging framework, emphasizing stable returns and risk control, offering investors a lower-volatility and more sustainable long-term allocation option.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 21, BTC extended its downward trajectory after a period of volatile decline, showing a clear accelerating pullback pattern. Mirroring this trend, ETH also followed a similarly sharp correction. Meanwhile, TNSR became a market standout with a surge of more than 220%. FG Nexus sold over 10,000 ETH to raise funds for a stock buyback aimed at supporting its share price, while Tether announced an investment in Parfin to accelerate institutional adoption of USDT across Latin America. The Fear and Greed Index dropped to 15, signaling that overall market sentiment has returned to extreme fear.

Based on a report by BCA Research, this article provides an in-depth analysis of the rise and fall of four capex booms. The article uncovers the underlying logic driving the transition from boom to bust. It also provides a cautionary analysis of the ongoing AI surge.

The article not only provides a detailed explanation of the specific reasons behind market fluctuations but also examines the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as well as the sector-wide performance of the entire cryptocurrency market.

Gate Research Weekly Report: Crypto markets continue to consolidate amid persistent extreme fear. BTC edged up 0.43% to 92,700 USDT, while ETH rebounded to 3,040 USDT. Tensor (+102.63%) surged sharply as extreme negative funding rates triggered a short squeeze. Giga Chad (+61.29%) strengthened following whale calls and viral social-media hype tied to Walmart-listed supplements. During Devconnect, Vitalik signaled that Ethereum “must complete its quantum-resistance upgrade within the next four years,” sending an important message to the ecosystem. IBIT reported a net outflow of $523.15 million on Tuesday, marking its largest outflow on record. Meanwhile, BSOL saw $23 million in inflows on Tuesday, bringing its total inflows to over $600 million.

Readers should prioritize well-defined opportunities, such as real-world AI applications and advancements in blockchain infrastructure. They should focus on these rather than getting distracted by short-term market swings or expert discussions.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 19, the crypto market saw a mild rebound despite extreme fear in sentiment. BTC edged up 0.15% to 92,410 USDT, while ETH rose 0.29% to 3,109 USDT. Among top movers, Anoma (+50.92%) surged as its ARM virtual machine went live on Ethereum, driving discussions around intents and programmable privacy; Grass (+23.03%) gained momentum ahead of its first Token Holder Call and on the back of processing 100 million scientific papers for open-science datasets; Falcon Finance (+17.69%) rallied as USDf supply exceeded 2 billion dollars and the Perryverse NFTs were fully revealed. On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales and institutions are accumulating simultaneously, with the number of wallets holding over 1,000 BTC reaching a four-month high. Vitalik introduced the Kohaku privacy framework, advancing privacy as a first-class property on Ethereum. Meanwhile, Zama launched its fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) testnet v2, marking a major step toward its upcoming mainnet launch.

Gate Research Daily Report: Bitcoin broke its stabilization trend and saw another high-volume decline; Ethereum fell below the key $3,000 support for the first time. The migration from ai16z to ELIZAOS has been completed on major exchanges, pushing ELIZAOS up 18.00%. Dusk announced partnerships with Chainlink and the Dutch securities exchange NPEX, driving DUSK up 19.25%. The current market pullback is largely driven by rotation among long-term holders. 1inch launched its new liquidity protocol, Aqua, addressing DeFi’s long-standing liquidity fragmentation. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board purchased $80 million worth of MSTR, reinforcing the trend of “large institutions = stable inflows.”

The market is anticipating the year-end "Santa Claus Rally": during periods of loose monetary policy and abundant liquidity, Bitcoin has typically outperformed gold. However, this year's macroeconomic environment and the structure of market participants are different. This article compares the differences between Bitcoin and gold in terms of liquidity, buyer categories, and holiday trading characteristics, exploring which asset is more likely to become the star performer during the year-end period.

The article presents comprehensive data and case studies to examine the evolving landscape of Bitcoin, stablecoins, and DeFi. It details how these changes affect market participants.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 17, BTC remains in a short-term weak downward consolidation structure, with 92,976 USD forming a key short-term low and serving as the core defense for bulls. ETH is also in a short-term weak consolidation pattern but has shown a clear rebound signal after touching the 3,004 USD low. Ethereum spot ETFs recorded a historic third-highest weekly net outflow of 729 million USD. ZEC contract positions surpassed 1.5 billion USD, reaching a record high, with significant increases in privacy network trading activity. Meanwhile, Japan’s regulators plan to reclassify BTC, ETH, and other cryptocurrencies as financial products, potentially reducing tax rates to 20%.

In October 2025, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization exhibited a “rise-then-fall” pattern, reflecting weak market confidence and a stabilizing trend. Driven by the “BTCFi” narrative, Starknet saw new highs in both capital inflows and on-chain activity, with TVL rising from $170 million at the end of September to $245 million. Prediction markets heated up, with Polymarket and Kalshi recording a combined monthly trading volume exceeding $7 billion. Privacy coins made a strong comeback, with ZEC surging more than 440% for the month and leading the rally. On the funding side, the Web3 sector completed 130 deals totaling $5.12 billion, up 28.43% month-over-month, with total capital raised jumping 104.8% — the second-highest level in nearly a year — with funds primarily flowing into DeFi ($2.15 billion) and core infrastructure.

Gate Research Daily Report: On November 14, after a period of volatile decline, BTC found short-term support near $98,000; ETH showed signs of a short-term rebound; GT stabilized with support around $10.9 and began to recover; while LUMINT became the market spotlight with a surge of over 670%. The first XRP spot ETF, launched by Canary Capital, began trading on Nasdaq; the Czech National Bank made its first-ever Bitcoin purchase, establishing a $1 million digital asset pilot portfolio; and Emory University doubled its Bitcoin holdings, investing $52 million to increase its stake in the Grayscale BTC ETF.

Gate Research Weekly Report: Bitcoin has fluctuated between $100,300 and $107,500 over the past week, and its consolidation phase is expected to continue. Visa has launched a stablecoin payment pilot, enabling platforms to pay content creators and freelancers directly in USDC. VCI Global plans to invest $100 million to acquire the OOB token of Oobit, a crypto payments company backed by Tether. The number of Ethereum validators has fallen back to April 2024 levels, while the exit queue waiting time has reached a new high. Meanwhile, Solana’s active address count has dropped to 3.3 million, the lowest level in a year. The x402 Network facilitators have processed more than 18.82 million transactions, marking a 35-fold increase since May.

The article examines historical investment cases and urges readers to remain humble and vigilant during periods of market exuberance, warning them not to overlook potential risks due to short-term gains.